Humanity is facing a daunting problem. It is projected that human population will rise from the current ~6 Billion to ~9 Billion by 2050 or so. At that point, population growth may have leveled off, but only if standards of living and women's empowerment rises as it has in many developing nations over recent decades. This means that we will not only need more food to feed the extra 3 Billion people, many people will also be eating better diets as they become more affluent and that will increase overall demand for agricultural production.
For the last century, agricultural productivity has increased sufficiently to keep up with population growth, somewhat by farming more land, but mainly by increasing yield per unit area. As described in myth 6, it is critical that we find ways to produce all this additional food without more farmed land. There is an another challenge. The population that will be facing this challenge will be getting older and older over time. Already today most Western countries are below "replacement rate" meaning that populations are decreasing unless immigration is significant. The countries of the world that have been blessed with the soils and climate to help feed the rest of the world are getting old rapidly (US, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Eastern Europe, Western Europe...). Most of the remaining population growth is in Africa and a few parts of Asia in places that will be very hard-pressed to grow nearly enough food for themselves. It will be critically important to find more productive models for small-holder agriculture in the third world, but it will also be critical to continue to produce far more food in the intensive, large-scale agriculture of the developed world. This also has to occur without creating an environmental disaster.
Organic agriculture with its yield limitations, vulnerability to climate change, fertilizer problems and high labor requirements is not a viable option. Much of the way that conventional farming is done today is also not an option. What is needed is the most progressive, scientifically sound and economically viable forms of agriculture that we can pursue. The challenge is huge, but it is not impossible to address. The widespread myths about organic seem harmless enough unless they stand in the way of making the right consumer and policy decisions to do what has to be done. That is my fear. President Obama's family made the symbolic gesture of planting a garden at the White House. That is great. They chose to make it organic because they are normal city dwellers who have no perspective on agriculture. I have tremendous respect for both Obama's, but they have accepted the same myth that is so wide-spread in our society. In Obama's case this is actually dangerous because he and his advisors appear to be letting this myth influence their policy decisions. Obama has said he will bring science back into the policy process and that is a welcome change after the last eight years. Unfortunately, in this case the myth is trumping the science.
There is a way forward. It is critical that we pursue it if we don't want to see either mass starvation or environmental degradation or both. That way cannot be "organic" as currently (and almost immutably) defined.
